Last season both Fulham and Bolton Wanderers looked destined to go down but they both put together what were frankly amazing runs and retained their Premier League status. With Newcastle and Middlesbrough facing each other on Monday night one of those sides could snatch a victory and start their push while the loser would be all but consigned to relegation. The only saving grace for these two troubled clubs is the equally poor form of Sunderland and Hull City, Sunderland are four points clear of safety with just one win in their last six games while Hull are a precarious three points above the drop zone and haven't managed a win since March 4.
Hull City face Stoke on Saturday in a game that represents their best chance to move away from the drop zone. The game will take place at Hull's KC Stadium and Stoke are a side who do not travel well, winning just once on the road so far this season. If Hull do fail to see off Stoke I would suggest that either Newcastle or Boro may just survive in their place but they also need to make sure they get enough points on the board to overtake the Tigers.
Newcastle's woes have been deepened by the current problem with Joey Barton, who has been suspended by the club following his red-card in the 3-0 defeat to Liverpool last weekend. There are strong rumours to suggest a back-room bust up between Barton and manager Alan Shearer took place after the game and this is exactly the kind of distraction sides battling the drop don't need, especially at this point in the season. Newcastle's final three fixtures see them take on Middlesbrough and Fulham at home before a trip to Aston Villa on the last day of the season, I would suggest they need at least six points to survive but given the way both Sunderland and Hull are performing they may need just a win and a draw, though I'm not convinced they will even manage to get that.
Of the clubs in the mire it is Middlesbrough who have impressed me the most in their recent fixtures. They saw off Hull City 3-1 before a draw with Fulham, however Boro hammered Fulham and were only denied a win by an exceptional performance by Fulham keeper Mark Schwarzer - ironically a former Boro player. They suffered defeats at the hands of Manchester United and Arsenal, though this is no disgrace but their remaining games are fairly tough. They face a trip to rivals Newcastle before a home game against Aston Villa and they end the season with a visit to West Ham's Upton Park. Like Newcastle they probably need at least six points but they have a tough run-in and to be honest I doubt they'll do it.
Hull need to make their next two games count as they face Manchester United at home on the last day of the season, despite home advantage I very much doubt they'll get anything out of United and their home game against Stoke City followed by a trip to Bolton Wanderers are now critical ties for the Tigers. As I said ealier Stoke do not travel well and Hull should go into the game with some confidence, they'll need to get at Stoke straight away and not allow themselves to be bullied by the physical nature of the Potters' game. The trip to Bolton will not be an easy one but Hull boss Phil Brown should know all about Bolton having spent a number of years there as assistant manager, the Wanderers have been inconsistent all season but if Hull can get the first goal it should set them in good stead - Bolton haven't come back from a goal down to win a game all season.
Sunderland also have to travel to Bolton's Reebok Stadium and they will be eager to repay the Wanderers who ran out 4-1 winners in the corresponding fixture in November. Bolton's form of late hasn't been great but then again neither has Sunderland's and it wouldn't surprise me if the game ended in a stalemate, as Bolton are still not mathematically safe themselves yet and will not want to lose to a team below them. They then face an away day at Portsmouth which is never an easy place to go before taking on Chelsea at the Stadium of Light on the final day of the campaign. I don't hold out much hope of Sunderland picking up many points from these fixtures myself and their survival could hinge on whether any of the teams below them can actually put a run of results together and overtake them.
The relegation battle this season has offered little in terms of spectatcle. In previous years teams have started to put runs together and push away from the bottom three but this just hasn't been the case this year with no one seeming to even want to get out of the bottom three. If Hull and Sunderland do manage to get something out of this weekend's fixtures it will put the pressure on Middlesbrough and Newcastle who will both desperately need to win when they meet on May 11. I'm an optimistic person in general and my great hope is that the game between Newcastle and Boro will indeed be a hard-fought game with both teams playing for their survival, if one side does manage to emerge victorious I would even suggest they might be the ones who beat the drop and upset the football odds by sending Hull City or Sunderland down in their place.
Source: ScoresPro.com
